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TERRA ECONOMICUS

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  • Can American economic statistics be trusted, or A misleading figure of the US

Can American economic statistics be trusted, or A misleading figure of the US


TERRA ECONOMICUS, Vol. 23, No 3,

Citation: Khanin G., Dobrovolsky I. (2025). Can American economic statistics be trusted, or A misleading figure of the US. Terra Economicus 23(3), 81–96 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-66062025-23-3-81-96

Acknowledgment:

There is a prevailing view among the global scientific community that US economic statistics are very reliable. This perception is reinforced by the inclusion of the United States in the highest tier of statistical rankings for GDP accuracy. To evaluate real GDP dynamics, we employed the most reliable output-based metrics from US statistics. These metrics allowed us to assess production trends in industries often questioned for reliability, such as manufacturing and construction. We initially examined the quality of US data for the period from 1970 to 1987, and then focused on the period from 1990 to 2010. This period was marked by major shifts in the US economy, including several economic crises. These events called into question the reliability of statistics at that time, in particular, when comparing official GDP figures with sharp rise in public debt, and the disproportionately small value added from construction (3–4% of GDP). Calculations of outputs and labor productivity across key sectors revealed a dramatic decline in labor productivity between 1990 and 2017, unprecedented in US economic history, pointing to deep-rooted weaknesses in the economy. Alternative GDP estimates showed minimal growth: 8% during the 1990s and only 4% during the early 2000s compared to the officially reported growth rates of 38% for the 1990s and over 18% for 2000s. These findings suggest a pronounced slowdown in growth during the 2000s despite official reports of strong growth. While our analysis of the period from 1990 to 2010 (unlike the period from 1970 to 1987) indicates problems with the reliability of US economic data, we do not consider these results definitive. For instance, they conflict with trends in class I railroad freight traffic and electricity production. These trends showed, contrary to official figures, a significantly higher growth in the 1990s compared to the 2000s. Thus, the accuracy of US economic data deserves further investigation. Nevertheless, based on our research, we conclude that the US has entered a phase of decline, facing the risk of major economic disruptions and loss of its leadership role in global economic and geopolitical landscape.

Keywords: economic development; reliability of economic statistics; US economy; US statistics; economic dynamics; GDP calculation
JEL codes: C40, E0,1 N12


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Publisher: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2073-6606