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TERRA ECONOMICUS

Decline of Europe 2.0 in context of global demographic reshuffling


TERRA ECONOMICUS, Vol. 23, No 3,

Citation: Balatsky E.V., Ekimova N.A. (2025). Decline of Europe 2.0 in context of global demographic reshuffling. Terra Economicus 23(3), 50–67 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2025-23-3-50-67

Acknowledgment:

The article substantiates the emergence of the phenomenon called “Decline of Europe” in the early 21st century. Unlike the previous phase (“Decline of Europe 1.0”), this decline is not associated with erroneous policies by European countries, which are fraught with their transition to the category of semiperipheral or even peripheral countries. This phenomenon is based on the demographic reshuffling that took place at the beginning of the 21st century and continues to this day. The demographic forecast for the major countries of the world suggests that by the mid-century, Germany and Britain, two largest European countries, will fall in the international demographic ranking from the top ten (which they occupied in the 1960s), to the third ten in terms of population, turning from leading powers to medium-sized and small states. The article also reveals and supports the “Demography → Economy → Technology” rule, according to which population growth of a state precedes economic growth, which in turn precedes technological progress. This rule leads to cycles of capital accumulation, demographic shifts and geopolitical inversions, with the inherent change of leading countries in the world economic system. The current stage of world geopolitics is characterized by this process. The objective nature of the “Demography → Economy → Technology” rule leads to fatalism when “Decline of Europe 2.0” is no longer dependent on the decisions by European politicians.

Keywords: demography; population size; public policy; economic growth; economies of scale
JEL codes: J11


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Publisher: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2073-6606